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Dublin homes over-valued by 25pc as report warns global boom is ending

Property prices in Dublin are over-valued when compared with the incomes of people in the capital city, according to international research.

It has been calculated property in Dublin is 25pc over-valued when set against incomes.

The research conducted by ‘The Economist’ magazine also found that price growth in Ireland’s capital has out-paced growth in 22 other global cities over the past five years.

The publication found property prices in Dublin rose by 62pc following the property crash that started a decade ago.

‘The Economist’ looked at median household incomes, or middle income levels, and compared them with house prices.

This is in an effort to analyse whether market dynamics are being driven by “fundamentals or froth”.

After comparing house prices to long-run median disposable household income, the study found prices in Dublin are 25pc over-valued.

The latest median, or middle, value of a property in Dublin is €360,000, according to the Central Statistics Office.

A 25pc over-valuation would imply the average property in the capital should be €270,000.

In Hong Kong prices were said to be 94pc over-valued, and by 65pc in Vancouver.

London prices were found to be 50pc over-valued when compared with median incomes.

The publication found prices across these cities may now be at a turning point.

Demand, supply and the cost of money could mean the international boom is ending: “As demand weakens, supply strengthens and mortgage rates rise, the bull run in housing may be drawing to an end,” it said.

The new research comes as experts have predicted price rises are due to slow down sharply because prices have risen so much they have now hit the limits people can afford.

Buyers are being restricted in what they can bid due to Central Bank lending limits.

Property experts predict a sharp slow-down this year.

Most expect prices to rise by just 5pc over the next few months, according to a survey carried out by the Central Bank and the Society of Chartered Surveyors of Ireland of estate agents, economists, academics and surveyors.

The latest official figures show a 12pc rise.

Central Bank lending limits are being cited as the reason why increases are slowing, while there is some evidence of more properties for sale.

The fall in growth expectations is particularly marked in Dublin, where the one-year expectation fell to just 2pc.

Just over half of the experts expect price growth in the capital – down from 98pc at the end of last year.

Irish Independent

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